COVID-19 and Future Disease X in Circular Economy Transition: Redesigning Pandemic Preparedness to Prevent a Global Disaster.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed a world surprisingly unprepared to respond to the new epidemiological scenario, even the developed countries, in spite of warnings from scientists since the 1990s. These alerts warned on the risks of an exponential increase in emergence of potentially pandemic zoonotic infectious diseases related to disruptive ecological niches in different regions of the globe, such as H1N1 Influenza, SARS, MERS, Zika, avian flu, swine flu, and Ebola, and also on the risks of a future and more lethal Disease X. We examine this global public health failure in anticipating and responding to the pandemic, stressing the urgent need for an innovative global pandemic preparedness system in the current transition from linear economy to a circular economy. Evidence provided here indicates that this novel preventive-based and resource-saving preparedness system could contribute to reverse the detrimental impacts of the pandemic on global economy and increase its resilience. Individual protection, contact tracing, and lockdown have proved to be just partially effective to respond to the spillover of viral zoonosis into the human population, and for most of these pathogens, vaccines are not yet available. As for COVID-19 vaccines, in spite of the extraordinary investments and unprecedented advances in innovative vaccines in few months, most of these products are expected to be available to more vulnerable developing countries' populations only by mid-2022. Furthermore, even when these vaccines are available, constraints such as low efficacy, waning immunity, new concerning COVID-19 variants, adverse events, and vaccine hesitancy might possibly restrict their public health impact and could contribute to aggravate the pandemic scenario. Considering these constraints and the severe global economic and social crises resulting from the lack of adequate preparedness and delayed effective response to COVID-19 and possibly to a future Disease X, we propose a pro-active global eco-social pandemic preparedness system. This novel system, based on One Health paradigm and on artificial intelligence and machine learning, is expected to incorporate "spillover" foresight and management into global preparedness and timely response. Designed to mitigate damage from outbreaks and minimize human morbidity and mortality, this approach to pandemic foresight and preparedness will be key to prevent a global disaster.

Vaccine Innovation for Pandemic Preparedness: Patent Landscape, Global Sustainability, and Circular Bioeconomy in Post-COVID-19 era.

In this article, we present breakthroughs and challenges in vaccine development for COVID-19 pandemic, discussing issues related to pandemic preparedness and their implications for circular bioeconomy and sustainability. Notwithstanding the unprecedented accelerated speed of COVID-19 vaccine development, just 9 months after the emergence of the pandemic in Wuhan, China, benefiting from previous developments in SARS and MERS vaccines, significant gaps persist in global vaccine preparedness. These gaps include issues related to immunity and protection, particularly to the limited vaccine protection against recent emergence of concerning new viral variants in the UK, South Africa, and Brazil and the consequent need for vaccine redesign. We examine these gaps and discuss the main issues that could impact on global vaccine availability in the current pandemic scenario: (1) breakthroughs and constraints in development and production of leading global COVID-19 vaccines; (2) innovation and technological development advances and gaps, providing information on global patent assignees for COVID-19, SARS, and MERS vaccine patents; (3) local capacity for development and production of COVID-19, SARS, and MERS vaccines in three emerging agro-based countries (India, Brazil, and South Africa); and (4) future scenarios, examining how these issues and vaccines redesign for new SARS-CoV-2 variants could impact on global access to vaccines and implications for circular bioeconomy and sustainability in the post-COVID era.

Vaccines for neglected and emerging diseases in Brazil by 2030: the valley of death and opportunities for RD&I in Vaccinology 4.0

Abstract: We examine the implications of the very low competitiveness of the Brazilian vaccine RD&I system, which precludes the development of all the important vaccines required by the National Immunization Program (NIP), severely impacting the healthcare of the population. In a country dramatically affected by COVID-19 pandemic and by an exponential increase in emerging and neglected diseases, particularly the poor, these RD&I constraints for vaccines become crucial governance issues. Such constraints are aggravated by a global scenario of limited commercial interest from multinational companies in vaccines for neglected and emerging diseases, which are falling into a "valley of death,"with only two vaccines produced in a pipeline of 240 vaccines. We stress that these constraints in the global pipeline are a window of opportunity for vaccine manufacturers in Brazil and other developing countries in the current paradigm transition towards Vaccinology 4.0. We conclude with recommendations for a new governance strategy supporting Brazilian public vaccine manufacturers in international collaborations for a sustainable national vaccine development and production plan by 2030. Resumen: Examinamos las implicaciones de la muy baja competitividad del sistema brasileño de ID&I de vacunas, que imposibilita el desarrollo de todas las vacunas importantes, requeridas por el Progrma Nacional de Inmunización (PNI), con impactos muy graves en la salud de la población de un país con 200 millones de habitantes. En un país gravemente afectado por la pandemia de COVID-19 y por enfermedades emergentes y olvidadas que afectan particularmente a los pobres, estas restricciones del ID&I para vacunas es, de hecho, un asunto crucial de gobierno. Estas limitaciones locales se han visto agravadas por un escenario global de interés comercial limitado, por parte de las compañías multinacionales, en vacunas para enfermedades emergentes y olvidadas, que están cayendo en un "valle de la muerte", con solamente dos vacunas producidas a nivel global frente a 240 vacunas. Identificamos en estas limitaciones globales una ventana de oportunidad para los fabricantes de vacunas en Brasil y otros países en desarrollo dentro del paradigma actual de transición hacia la Vacunología 4.0. Concluimos con recomendaciones de una nueva estrategia de gobierno que apoye a los fabricantes brasileños de vacunas públicas en colaboraciones internacionales para el plan nacional de desarrollo y producción sostenible de vacunas en 2030. Resumo: Examinamos as implicações da competitividade tão baixa do sistema brasileiro de pesquisa, desenvolvimento e inovação (PD&I) de vacinas, que impede o desenvolvimento de todas as vacinas importantes requeridas pelo Programa Nacional de Imunizações (PNI), prejudicando gravemente a saúde da população. Em um país seriamente afetado pela pandemia de COVID-19 e por um aumento exponencial de doenças emergentes e negligenciadas, principalmente entre os brasileiros pobres, essas restrições de PD&I quanto às vacinas tornam-se questões cruciais de governança. Essas restrições são agravadas por um cenário global de interesse comercial limitado por parte das empresas multinacionais de vacinas para doenças negligenciadas e emergentes, que estão caindo em um "vale da morte", com apenas duas vacinas produzidas em um pipeline de 240 vacinas. Ressaltamos que essas restrições na produção global constituem uma janela de oportunidade para os fabricantes de vacinas no Brasil e em outros países em desenvolvimento na atual transição de paradigma para a Vacinologia 4.0. Concluímos com recomendações para uma nova estratégia de governança em suporte aos fabricantes públicos de vacinas no Brasil em colaborações internacionais para um plano nacional de desenvolvimento e produção de vacinas que seja sustentável até 2030.

Vaccines for neglected and emerging diseases in Brazil by 2030: the "valley of death" and opportunities for RD&I in Vaccinology 4.0.

We examine the implications of the very low competitiveness of the Brazilian vaccine RD&I system, which precludes the development of all the important vaccines required by the National Immunization Program (NIP), severely impacting the healthcare of the population. In a country dramatically affected by COVID-19 pandemic and by an exponential increase in emerging and neglected diseases, particularly the poor, these RD&I constraints for vaccines become crucial governance issues. Such constraints are aggravated by a global scenario of limited commercial interest from multinational companies in vaccines for neglected and emerging diseases, which are falling into a "valley of death," with only two vaccines produced in a pipeline of 240 vaccines. We stress that these constraints in the global pipeline are a window of opportunity for vaccine manufacturers in Brazil and other developing countries in the current paradigm transition towards Vaccinology 4.0. We conclude with recommendations for a new governance strategy supporting Brazilian public vaccine manufacturers in international collaborations for a sustainable national vaccine development and production plan by 2030.